Work Package 6: Foresight study

The main aim of Work Package 6 is to produce a foresight study on mineral raw materials supply and demand in the EU with special attention given to critical minerals including primary and secondary raw materials. The overall goal is to build a sustainable network of competent partners for future annual updates of the foresight study, including plans for a long-term refinement.

Based on the expertise of nine geological surveys (BGR, GTK, CGS, GEUS, LNEG, MFGI, PGI-NRI, SGU, HGI-CGS) and three research institutes (Wuppertal Institut, RMG, Fraunhofer ISI), a trans-disciplinary approach will be developed to identify future supply and demand issues and to explicitly address the complexity of the raw material supply and demand system. The foresight study aims to describe factors which influence the system. It further aims to enlighten topics and developments which are likely to have a significant impact on Europe´s demand and supply of raw materials. The work will take into account political and economic developments, technological trends, long-term trends on the production side and other events which possibly restrict the supply of raw materials to Europe. Furthermore, developments or political decisions in the EU, which may increase or decrease the demand for certain raw materials, will be considered.

For metallic raw materials much of the developments to be discussed will be related to the global raw materials market. For industrial raw materials, of which a high percentage is produced within the EU, relevant topics will centre on how to ensure a sustainable supply from European sources.